Ebrahim shows us how to create your own spreadsheet model of the COVID-19 virus spread.
OLH Tag: Quantitative method
How do social, economic, historical and political factors intertwine with ecology to make ‘spillover’ (transfer of new viruses from animals to humans) increasingly likely, and can anything be done to prevent it?
Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some elements of maths and logic, the likelihood of a specific outcome actually happening.
The key takeaway from chaos theory is that the smallest of changes in a system can grow explosively to produce substantial differences in that system’s behaviour. This is sometimes known as the butterfly effect. The idea is that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings in Edinburgh could cause a tornado in Mississippi three weeks later. By contrast, in an identical copy of the world sans the Scottish butterfly, no such tornado would have occurred in Mississippi.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma is a well-known concept in modern game theory. Game theory is a framework for modelling scenarios where different ‘players’ have conflicts of interest. The Prisoner’s Dilemma presents us with a paradox in decision analysis in which two individuals, acting in their own self-interest, fail to produce the optimal outcome.
If you turn on the news right now, chances are you’ll probably hear someone talking about models. And they are important. They’re a crucial tool in helping us visualise the path of COVID-19, meaning we can start to make predictions about which interventions might work and which might not. So what actually are they?